Friday 19 December 2014

OYO O NI DARU O



Oyo State was formed in 1976 when Western Nigeria was divided into Ogun, Ondo and Oyo. It later became the new Oyo after Osun State was carved out in 1991. Bola Ige was the 1st executive governor of Oyo State (1979 – 1983 UPN) but failed to be re-elected despite his remarkable effort as governor. He was followed by Dr Victor Olunloyo (Oct 1983 – Dec 1983 NPN). Chief Kolapo Ishola was later elected as 3rd governor of Oyo State (Jan 1992 – Nov 1993 SDP).

The 4th republic kicked off with Lam Adesina emerging as governor under Alliance for Democracy between 1999-2003. He was succeeded by Senator Adewolu Ladoja in 2003 as a PDP candidate and his deputy then was Adebayo Alao Akala. The power tussle between the late Adedibu and Ladoja let to the laters impeachment which automatically made Akala the governor for about 11 months till it was overturned in dec 2006 bu by May 2007 Alao Akala managed to emerged as the PDP candidate and became governor of Oyo State. These events were marred with a lot of violence and resulted in slowing down the development of Oyo State.

In 2011, Ajimobi defeated Alao Akala to become the 7th governor of Oyo State as an ACN candidate. Although he had already contested in 2007 as an ANPP candidate, the PDP was alleged to have manipulated the polls to ensure Alao Akala became governor. 

Currently Oyo State have 5 strong contenders running for governor, two of which have been governor before and one is currently the incumbent governor. Although there is a myth that ‘Oyo o kin sin enikan ni e meji” (Oyo does not serve the same master twice), these 3 happen to be among the top contenders.  Meanwhile, other states like Ekiti and State of Osun have broken the myth of re-electing a governor twice already so who says Oyo can’t do the same.


Brief profile of the candidates:



Candidate
DOB
Origin
Party
Academic Qualification
Political Experience
Abiola Adeyemi Ajimobi
Dec 1949
Ibadan
APC
Bsc Biz Admin and Finance & MBA
Senator (2003-2007), Governor (2011 - til date)
Adebayo Alao Akala
Jun 1950
Ogbomosho
LP
Dip in Biz Admin
LG Chair (1999-2002), Deputy Gov (2003 - 2006 & Gov (Jan - dec (2006), 2007 - 2011)
Rashidi Adewolu Ladoja
Sep 1944
Ibadan
Accord
Bsc Engineering
Senator (1993) & Governor (2003 - 2006)
Seyi Makinde
Dec 1967
Ibadan
SDP
Bsc Engineering
NA
Teslim Kolawole Folarin
Oct 1963
Ibadan
PDP
Bsc Political Science
Senator (2003-2011)


Abiola Adeyemi Ajimobi

Abiola Adeyemi Ajimobi
An accomplished professional and a former senator, Ajimobi has been governor for over 3years in Oyo State. He came in just after Akala and at a point where the state witnessed a lot of violence and unrest. Till date a lot of shops shut down by 8pm as a result of their experience with armed robbery, violence and thuggery that was associated with Akala’s government.  Since he became governor, the state has been relatively safer, cleaner and beautiful.  Oyo has witnessed major road expansion and construction in the same time-frame.  Introduction of YESO, the transformation of BCOS and  the new Agodi gardens are just a few of what Ajimobi has done so far.  This is not to say he is perfect or outstanding but from where the state is coming from he has done well. 

One thing a lot of people who have interacted with him hold against him is the claim that he is very arrogant and also his wife has so much power that she gets involved in major decision making. After the fall out of an alliance with Ladoja and Accord party which was used to stabilised the house of Assembly, Ladoja accused him of inflating contracts and displacing a lot of traders and artisans in the name of beautification.
Ajimobi has an advantage as an incumbent and also various resources at his disposal including funds to contest. Will people focus on his performance and overlook his shortcomings? Will his opponent not use the alleged influence of his wife in governance against him during campaign? Will the allegations of contract inflation be backed by facts and figures to discredit him by Ladoja? Will the educated and aware judge him by his performance and for that singular reason or will they allow irrelevant sentiment cloud their judgement?



Adebayo Alao Akala

Adebayo Alao Akala
The former police man turned politician was governor altogether for about 4yrs 11months. This is the longest anyone has been governor in Oyo State. His tenure witnessed a lot of thuggery and violence in the state but the people claim that despite all of that they enjoyed free flow of cash in the economy and although the environment was dirty, and relatively unsafe they enjoyed some sort of boom in their business. This cant really be explained in theoretical terms but according to the people of Oyo State that was the situation. Akala also did continue some major road projects that were believed to have been initiated by Ladoja. These projects would have been fantastic project but the quality of work done can’t stand the test of time. Akala is said to be good man at heart but was believed to have surrounded himself with a bunch of clueless and greedy political appointees, contractors and friends.
This makes one question his administrative skills but people close to him say he is better, wiser and means well for Oyo State.
Alao Akala was also picked up in 2012 by the EFCC and charged to court over a N11.5bn fraud case. He made a couple of appearance in court with Hosea Agboola and Femi Babalola (Jogor) but EFCC and the court have been silent about the case for a while now since the case has been adjourned indefinitely since November 2013.
Akala seems to have a lot of loyal grassroot supporters; this is probably because he is what they call ‘buje bu da nu’ (spends lavishly). The question is are these supporters true to him and believe in him or are they just with him for his money? What really has he got to offer and how will he convince people he will be a better governor this time around? Will he benefit from the Stomach infrastructure phenomenon like Fayose did?



Rashidi Adewolu Ladoja

Rashidi Adewolu Ladoja
An accomplished entrepreneur had his administration cut short after he was impeached. Although he came back briefly, the State was in a terrible shape that governance was almost impossible.  It is believed that the few years he spent in government; he was developing a master plan for Oyo State development. Ladoja took good care of civil servant and teachers by promptly paying their salaries but then the trade-off was to hold back on any major projects till much later. The later never happened as he was impeached. 

As at February 2014, the court of appeal in Lagos disallowed an appeal by Ladoja to quash the criminal charges against him by EFCC. But since this report contract-fraud-court-frees-bankole-orders-ladojas-trial no new development about the case has been publish or in public domain.

Ladoja enjoyed a lot of sympathy votes from civil servants especially teachers in 2011 but that wasn't enough, infact his running for the election was a spoiler and worked to his other opponent’s advantage. Will he still get sympathy civil servants vote? Will he be able to run a very good campaign considering the fact that alot of his loyalist left him just a few days ago in anger? What will be his selling point since the current governor haven't done so back in term of development?





Seyi Makinde

Seyi Makinde
He is the youngest of all the 5 candidates and has never held any political office. He is according to the bio on his page Seyi Makinde. An accomplished business man in the oil and gas sector. He is a force to reckon with simply because he has in the last year ran a very intense campaign. He has basically carved a niche for himself as a young and fresh alternative through his constant presence in the media. He has also gone round the State to meet with people to register his presence and intention even before the political tussle got heated up . 
The only mistake he made was that he did all of this under a party that could not conduct free and fair elections in the state and also a party that is associated with violence and thuggery. He eventually lost at the primaries to Teslim folarin. Although both Akala and Seyi claim that no primaries was conducted and that the candidate that emerged was imposed by the Oga at the top,  Seyi has since then moved to SDP. 
People seem to know about Seyi Makinde but his ordeal with PDP and his move to SDP may change the perception of people about him. With a strong political party backing he would have been a preferred choice considering the fact he is young, he has ran a good campaign selling his candidacy and ideas and his little effort in empowering people.






Teslim Kolawole Folarin

Teslim Kolawole Folarin
He was the senate leader 2007- 2011 as a 2nd term senator. He emerged as the flag bearer from what his former party mate described as mockery of justice. According to Seyi Makinde  “How can this same party (PDP) have a candidate who claims to have been elected with 167 votes which is just about 10 per cent of the total number of delegates after the majority or 1,053 delegates were disenfranchised? I believe in the rule of law, decency and discipline. Justice delayed is justice denied.’’

Teslim’s 8 years as a senator including 4years as a majority leader has not reflected positively in his district especially for someone with an ambition to be governor. With such a position, it would have been nice to stay prominent in the society getting involved in developmental projects and programs aswell as showing concern for lives, people and property. Teslim basically stays mute when he should be most vocal on issues an example is when Ibadan was hit with flood and so many people were displaced. Law makers don’t have votes but they do have constituency allowance and one of their major role is to make laws, facilitate development of their constituency and state using their influence and access to the governor and the president. The question in the lips of people in Ibadan is that how much of their interest did Teslim Folarin look out for and will he if elected be concerned about the wellbeing of people, infrastructural development and economic growth?

Teslim was arrested and charged for murder of Eleweomo (a former
vice chair of Oyo NURTW) December 2010, he was released few days later in controversial circumstances liked to the Presidency getting involved to participate at the PDP primaries in Abuja. The case has since then been swept under the rug as usual.
Out of all the candidates, Teslim is the least popular. As a matter of fact alot of people did not know he was the Senate Leader till the incident with Eleweomo happened. Will he be able to convince people that he has what it takes to lead the State? Can he actually deliver or will he continue to remain the figure head type leader most people think he is?





Who Will Become the Next Oyo State Governor?

This election will definitely be a close one especially with the number of strong candidates contesting. The candidates have their strength and weakness as highlighted above but as it stands one can’t really say for sure who will emerge or who most people in the State will vote for.

The intensity of the campaign, messaging and the ability of the candidates to sell themselves to the people of Oyo State will be the determining factor of who wins Feb 2015. Their performance, failures, court cases, allegations and CV’s will only matter to a few and especially the elite voters. The other voters who form majority will judge them by what happens in the next couple of weeks, some communities like Sabo, Akinyele, Shasha, Oyo town, Saki etc with strong influence from their leaders will naturally go the way their leaders dictate so it’s up to the candidates that can woo them the most.
Another factor to consider is how the ‘Ibadan’ factor will play out considering that 4 out of the 5 major candidates are from Ibadan. Although, Ibadan has a huge population of settlers from other parts of Oyo state and even outside Oyo, it will be interesting if they come out to vote this time around and to see who they vote for. 

Saturday 9 August 2014

Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola Defeats Omisore




The result of the August 9, 2014 election as announce by INEC after collation early hours the following day is as follows:

S/N LG APC PDP WINNER
1 AIYEDADE 12,801 11,255 APC
2 AIYEDIRE 7,724 7,813 PDP
3 ATAKUMOSA EAST 9,287 6,294 APC
4 ATAKUMOSA WEST 6,928 5,142 APC
5 BOLUWADURO 4,891 5,035 PDP
6 BORIPE 12,723 9,344 APC
7 EDE NORTH 15,403 10,427 APC
8 EDE SOUTH 11,738 7,462 APC
9 EGBEDORE 10,615 7,022 APC
10 EJIGBO 17,700 12,495 APC
11 IFE CENTRAL 9,680 24,555 PDP
12 IFE EAST 13,821 20,831 PDP
13 IFE NORTH 8,063 9,841 PDP
14 IFE SOUTH 7,324 12,811 PDP
15 IFEDAYO 4,225 3,982 APC
16 IFELODUN 17,447 12,442 APC
17 ILA 10,825 7,916 APC
18 ILESAH EAST 16,106 5,913 APC
19 ILESHA WEST 15,427 5,449 APC
20 IREPODUN 13,314 7,386 APC
21 IREWOLE 18,328 10,330 APC
22 ISOKAN 9,758 10,028 PDP
23 IWO LGA 20,827 15,435 APC
24 OBOKUN 11,696 8,618 APC
25 ODO OTIN 11,950 12,902 PDP
26 OLAOLUWA 7,927 4,963 APC
27 OLORUNDA 26,551 8,483 APC
28 ORIADE 12,523 10,214 APC
29 OROLU 8,558 6,786 APC
30 OSOGBO 39,983 11,513 APC
TOTAL 394,143 292,687

APC won in 22 Local Government (394,413 votes), while PDP won in just 8 Local Government (292,687). Ogbeni won with a margin of 101,456 votes. Ogbeni remains the executive governor of the State of Osun for another four year term.



Saturday 5 July 2014

Ogbeni Leekan Si




Over the last couple of weeks especially after the outcome of Ekiti election, a lot has been said by different people. The most interesting part is the fact that people have now added a new infrastructure that needs to be developed called ‘stomach infrastructure’.  The satisfaction of the stomach infrastructure is what some believe helped Fayose win. Another set of people believe he was a grassroot man and connected well with the masses. In all of this none of them referred to his performance as Governor before he was impeached because truth be told there isn’t much to say about it.
Well this is not an analysis of Ekiti election but to highlight what a few people may know or not know about Osun State and the people I consider the three major contenders.

PARTY
NAME
DOB
PROFESSION
EXPERIENCE
APC
Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola
May 1957
Mechanical Engineer
Commissioner for Work, Lagos (1999-2007) & Governors, State of Osun (2011 – Till Date)
LP
Engineer Fatai Akinbade
April 1955
Civil Engineer
SSG (2003 – 2007)
PDP
Senator Iyiola Omisore
Sept 1957
Engineer (Power, Machines and Building Services
Deputy Governor, Osun (1999-2002), Senator (2003-2011)



A lot of people have asked me why I choose to support Ogbeni Rauf and not Omisore just because he is an Ile-Ife man and my late dad also happens to be an Ile-ife prince. Well, I choose to support Ogbeni Rauf because he is an outstanding man, a man with vision, complete gentle man with a great plan to develop the state.
Faitai Akinbade
The other two candidates above had opportunities to lead the State in different capacities. Fatai Akinbade was SSG under Olagunsoye Oyinlola although I can excuse him because most of the time he had to take order from his boss whether he likes it or not.
Senator Iyiola Omisore
Meanwhile, Omisore while he was deputy had some sort of authority because his boss was a very liberal man (Bisi Akande).  One would have expected that Omisore will develop his hometown at least but instead of focusing on development he was looking for ways to take over from his boss which led him to join PDP, an ambition he has nursed even before Chief Bisi Akande was picked by the party (AD). He was arrested for the alleged murder of Chief Bola Ige. Also, before the murder, Omisore was also alleged to have instructed his thugs to remove Chief Bola Ige’s cap in the Ooni’s palace. Omisore said this much later "Recently, Chief Bola Ige came on radio here (Osogbo - the state capital), to insult me and my family. THAT IS THE LAST TIME HE WOULD INSULT ME. He was beaten yesterday. The people of Ile-lfe beat him up and he was crying like a baby, as they removed his cap and glasses. If it had been at a political gathering, he will be dead by now..... In fact, what the people wanted to do was more than removing his glasses and cap"  

As a matter of fact, Jelili Adesiyan (Current Minister for Police Affairs) was also fingered in the matter through various testimonies by people close to Omisore and Chief Ige. Honourable Odunayo Olagbaju was also killed around the same period and his assassination was linked to Chief Ige’s murder through his involvement with Jelili Adesiyan and Senator Omisore.  Senator Omisore was later arrested and kept in Agodi prison for a while but through PDP’s ‘abrakadabra’ elections, he was selected and won the Senatorial seat for Osun East while in Agodi. He was released on bail to attend the NASS swearing in, re-arrested and then finally released a month later. The case of Bola Ige’s murder remains unsolved.

Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola
Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola in my opinion has outperformed any other governor the state has had since its creation in 1991. With very little IGR and dwindling federal allocation, he has been able to do so much in the State. He started off in 2010 by setting a 6 point integral action plan:










The broad action plan has been the guiding principle to the phenomenal development in the state.  I how wonder why anyone would want that to change so soon? Lagos tremendous development one way or another is linked to the fact that succession has nothing to do with development but with PDP it is different.  To enjoy sustainable economic growth and development in the State of Osun which Ogbeni has started, another four years is very essential. This is because for some of the candidates being governor is just to fulfill a lifelong ambition, although another opponent claim to want to block the little gaps that has been created by Ogbeni’s administration which is understandable but then I need to remind them that the gaps that their previous party created is so huge that it’s a remarkable feat to have done some much the last 3.5years. Also, the PDP candidate was a Senator for 8 years with absolutely nothing to show for it. He was Chair House Committee on Budget and Appropriation during this period, I need not tell you how our budget has been the last couple of years. People in his Senatorial district which is largely Ife-Ijesha would tell you that it was as if he did not exist throughout that period.

Finally, to the followers of  Senator Omisore who has recently decided to appear like a grassroot man, I keep wondering if they have any other reason to want to vote him in apart from the fact that they just see it as a contest against APC.

It’s more of a vendetta to them because that’s basically what they can hold on to. Their is absolutely nothing tangible to refer to from someone who has been in government and I dare say an experienced professional politician at that. Infact, Segun Akinwusi the SDP guber candidate served as Head of Service in Osun (2003 -2012) and also had an  opportunity to contribute his quota to the PDP government for about 8years but they all still couldn’t achieve what Ogbeni Rauf has achieve in just 3.5years.  So if we are to access it from a performance point of view Ogbeni has done very well, he also understands the need to connect with people that’s why his government exist soley for the welfare of the people and he has proved that beyond reasonable doubt.